U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Aug ’20 month-end dry whey stocks increased 1.5% from the previous month, reaching a two and a half year high level and finishing 18.2% higher on a YOY basis. Dry whey stocks reached a three year seasonal high level for the month of August. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 1.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 6.9%. Dry whey production declined 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.9% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to an Eight Month Low Level but Remain 0.4% Higher YOY
Aug ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 13.1% from the previous month, reaching an eight month low level but remaining 0.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 13.1%, was greater than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 21.0 million pounds, or 9.6%. Despite remaining higher on a YOY basis, Aug ’20 NFDM stocks finished 5.9% below three year average seasonal levels. NFDM production increased 8.8% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ‘20.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 2.5% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 4.7%
Aug ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to a five month low level but remained 4.7% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the seventh experienced in a row.
- U.S. dry whey stocks finished 18.2% higher on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a two and a half year high level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined to an eight month low level but remained 0.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20.
According to the USDA, Aug ’20 month-end dry whey stocks increased 1.5% from the previous month, reaching a two and a half year high level and finishing 18.2% higher on a YOY basis. Dry whey stocks reached a three year seasonal high level for the month of August. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 1.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 6.9%. Dry whey production declined 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.9% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to an Eight Month Low Level but Remain 0.4% Higher YOY
Aug ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 13.1% from the previous month, reaching an eight month low level but remaining 0.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 13.1%, was greater than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 21.0 million pounds, or 9.6%. Despite remaining higher on a YOY basis, Aug ’20 NFDM stocks finished 5.9% below three year average seasonal levels. NFDM production increased 8.8% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ‘20.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 2.5% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 4.7%
Aug ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to a five month low level but remained 4.7% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the seventh experienced in a row.