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U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – Jan ’21

  • January 22, 2021
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Dec ’20 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined 1.2% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year low seasonal level.
  • Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding to a 29 month high level through Nov ’20.
  • YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates continue to be led by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).
Additional Report Details According to the USDA, Dec ’20 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates rebounded seasonally to an eight month high level but remained 1.2% lower on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. Dairy cow slaughter rates reached a three year low seasonal level for the month of December. The seasonal increase in slaughter rates of 9.3% was significantly larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal increase of 1.3%. Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 15 of the past 17 months. The Dec ’20 YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however. Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd remaining higher on a YOY basis through Nov ’20. The Oct ’20 U.S. milk cow herd was revised 5,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Nov ’20 figure increased an additional 12,000 head, reaching a 29 month high level and finishing 62,000 head above the previous year. Dec ’20 milk cow herd figures are scheduled to be released Monday, January 25th. Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia). YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter continue to be led by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia), followed by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada). Dairy cow slaughter rates increased most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska). 2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.  
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