Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks remained at a 17 year low seasonal level throughout Apr ’21, finishing 25.5% below previous year volumes.
• U.S. beef stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, finishing 5.4% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 17 months.
• U.S. chicken stocks declined contraseasonally to a six year low level throughout Apr ‘21, finishing 22.5% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 years.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Remain at a 17 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 25.5% Lower on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Apr ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks rebounded slightly from the previous month but remained 25.5% below previous year volumes, reaching a 17 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 13^th experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the 13 most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 4.2 million pound, or 0.9%, was smaller than the ten year average March – April seasonal build in stocks of 21.4 million pounds, or 3.5%.

Beef – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month, Finish Down 5.4%

Apr ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level while finishing 5.4% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 17 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 29.4 million pounds, or 6.1%, was larger than the ten year average March – April seasonal decline in stocks of 4.6 million pounds, or 1.0%.

Chicken – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally to a Six Year Low Level, Finish Down 22.5% on a YOY Basis

Apr ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined contraseasonally to a six year low level, finishing 22.5% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 years. Chicken stocks reached a seven year low seasonal level for the month of April, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past nine months. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 16.0 million pounds, or 2.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average March – April seasonal build in stocks of 20.2 million pounds, or 2.9%.

Overall, Apr ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 21.2% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Apr ’21 beef stocks finished 20% below the record high historical storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 26% and 35% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Apr ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 19.3% below the record high seasonal level experienced during April of 2020. Individually, Apr ’21 beef stocks finished 12% below the record high seasonal storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 23% and 35% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.

The Apr ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 12^th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 17 years on a percentage basis.