Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined to a three year low seasonal level on a milk-fat basis but reached a record high seasonal level on a skim-solids basis throughout Oct ’21. Domestic demand declined 1.9% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 3.4% above previous year levels on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined to a four year low seasonal level throughout Oct ’21 however cheese commercial disappearance finished above previous year levels for the third time in the past four months. Dry whey commercial disappearance remained below previous year levels for the sixth consecutive month, however whey protein concentration disappearance reached a six year high seasonal level. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance rebounded to a record high seasonal level for the month of October.
• U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year levels for the 12^th time in the past 14 months throughout Sep ’21, declining by 1.3% and remaining at a record low seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Finishes Lower YOY on a Milk-Fat Basis, Higher YOY on a Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis finished below previous year levels for the second consecutive month throughout Oct ’21, declining by 0.5% and reaching a three year low seasonal level. Domestic disappearance declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 38.6% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 2.4% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 12^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.7%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased by 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.0% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance finished 0.3% below previous year levels, however, reaching a three year low level.

Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.3%

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic butter disappearance declined 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 91.4% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual butter disappearance finished 4.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fourth consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.9%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Oct ’21, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a ten month low level. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Higher YOY for the Third Time in Four Months, up 0.7%

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the third time in the past four months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.1% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Cheese export demand increased 43.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.

’20-’21 annual cheese disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 26^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Oct ’21, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Sixth Consecutive Month, Down 3.0%

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the sixth experienced in a row. Dry whey export demand declined 21.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 26.8% YOY increase in domestic demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was just the third experienced throughout the past 19 months.

’20-’21 annual dry whey disappearance finished 3.9% below previous year levels, reaching a six year low annual level. Domestic disappearance declined 23.5%, reaching a seven year low level.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Oct ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a five year low level.

WPC – Disappearance Reaches a Six Year High Seasonal Level, up 4.8% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a six year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC commercial disappearance was the sixth experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic WPC disappearance increased 53.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.3% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual WPC disappearance finished 0.7% below previous year levels, reaching an eight year low level. Domestic disappearance finished 10.1% below previous year levels, reaching a nine year low annual level.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Oct ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to an eight month high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, up 9.3% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 9.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 99.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.3% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance finished 0.7% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance declined 17.2%, however, reaching a 27 year low annual level.

U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Oct ’21, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a two year low level.

Oct ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP, while declines were most significant for cheese. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.3% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year figures for the 12^th time in the past 14 months during Sep ’21, declining by 1.3% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Fluid milk sales have reached record low seasonal levels over six consecutive months through September. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 9.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales finished 0.6% above the record low level experienced throughout the previous production season, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 years. Fluid milk sales remained 0.2% below previous year levels throughout the 2020 calendar year, however. ’20-’21 annual fluid milk sales finished 3.6% below previous year levels, reaching a record low annual level.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the 13^th time in the past 14 months during Sep ’21, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’20-’21 annual fat consumed within fluid milk finished 4.2% below the three year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching the lowest annual level on record.