Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Feb ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 1.0% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in total red meat production was the first experienced throughout the past nine months.
• U.S. pork production declined 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in pork production was the ninth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the nine month period.
• U.S. beef production increased 6.9% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef production was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past nine months.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Increases Contraseasonally to a Record High Seasonal Level, up 1.0% YOY

According to the USDA, Feb ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production increased contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 1.0% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in total red meat production was the first experienced throughout the past nine months. The month-over-month increase in total red meat production of 1.6% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average January – February seasonal decline of 4.1%. The January – February seasonal increase in total red meat production figures was the first experienced throughout the past 57 years.

’20-’21 annual red meat production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fifth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD red meat production has declined by 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase, and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 54^th consecutive month throughout Feb ’22. The most recent deviation from trendline was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 38 months, however, trailing only the previous month’s deviation.

Pork – Production Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 4.3% YOY

U.S. pork production finished 4.3% below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22 when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in pork production was the ninth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the nine month period. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY increase in average weights per head.

’20-’21 annual pork production finished 1.5% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD pork production has declined by an additional 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Beef – Production Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes 6.9% Higher YOY

Feb ’22 U.S. beef production finished 6.9% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef production was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.4% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual beef production finished 2.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’21-’22 YTD beef production has increased by an additional 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.