Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Mar ’22 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a six month high level but finished 20.4% below previous year levels, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a seven year low seasonal level on a days of usage basis.
• Mar ’22 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past 11 months, down 0.7%. On a days of usage basis, cheese stocks remained below previous year levels for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 20.4% YOY

According to the USDA, Mar ’22 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a six month high level but remained 20.4% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in butter stocks was the eighth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. Butter stocks had finished above previous year levels over 25 consecutive months through Jul ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the eight most recently available data points.

The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 20.1 million pounds, or 7.6%, was larger than the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 9.9 million pounds, or 4.4%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to rebounding seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the following calendar year. Butter stocks remained at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’22 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 21.4% and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Cheese – Stocks Finish Below Previous Year Levels for the First Time in 11 Months, Down 0.7%

Mar ’22 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the 11 month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 0.7% below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout March of the previous year. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months. Cheese stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however.

American cheese stocks finished 1.5% below previous year levels throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.2% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The month-over-month decline in total cheese stocks of 8.9 million pounds, or 0.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 18.0 million pounds, or 1.5%.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’22 U.S. cheese stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 4.4% and reaching a four year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Mar ’22 Stocks Projected to Remain Below Previous Year Levels

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 5.6% below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain below previous year levels throughout Mar ’22 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, declining by an estimated 6.4%. Mar ’22 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available May 4^th.