Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 8.0% above previous year levels throughout Mar ’22, increasing on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 24 months. Pork stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 18 years, however.
• U.S. beef stocks finished 11.2% above previous year levels throughout Mar ’22, reaching a five year high level, overall, and remaining at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months.
• U.S. chicken stocks finished 5.1% above previous year levels, remaining higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished below previous year levels over 18 consecutive months through January of 2022.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Finish Higher YOY for Just the Second Time in the Past 23 Months, up 8.0%

According to the USDA, Mar ’22 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased contraseasonally to a 23 month high level, finishing 8.0% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in pork stocks was just the second experienced throughout the past 24 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 26 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 7.3 million pound, or 1.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 19.9 million pounds, or 3.3%. Pork stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 18 years, however.

Beef – Stocks Reach a Five Year High Level, Finish 11.2% Higher YOY

Mar ’22 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased contraseasonally to a five year high level, finishing 11.2% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of March. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 5.4 million pounds, or 1.0%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 14.4 million pounds, or 2.9%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain Higher YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, up 5.1%

Mar ’22 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined seasonally from the 13 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 5.1% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in chicken stocks was the second experienced in a row. Chicken stocks had finished below previous year levels for 18 consecutive months through Jan ’22, prior to finishing higher on a YOY basis over the two most recent months of available data. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 5.1 million pounds, or 0.6%, was smaller than the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 21.1 million pounds, or 3.0%.

Overall, Mar ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 13.0% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Mar ’20. Individually, Mar ’22 beef and chicken stocks finished 5.5% and 20.6% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 30.5% below the maximum historical storage level.

Mar ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 11.7% below the record high seasonal storage level experienced throughout 2020. Individually, Mar ’22 beef stocks reached a record high seasonal storage level however chicken and pork stocks finished 15.5% and 27.5% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels.

Mar ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded seasonally to a 14 month high level, finishing 7.6% above previous year levels. The Mar ’22 YOY increase in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 27 months. Combined stocks had finished below previous year levels over 21 consecutive months through Jan ’22, prior to finishing higher over the two most recent months of available data.