U.S. Milk Production Update – Apr ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the Mar ’18 YOY growth rate of 1.3% was the smallest experienced throughout the past three months on a percentage basis.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+7.4%), followed by Utah (+5.5%) and Texas (+4.8%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Florida, Oregon, Vermont, New York, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Mar ’18, finishing up 2.7%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY gains.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Mar ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.6% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho. The aforementioned states accounted for over three quarters of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production were most significant throughout Minnesota and New York.
Overall, the Mar ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 4,000 head from the originally stated Feb ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Feb ’18 revised figure. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.406 million head, which is 23,000 head more than March of last year and just 2,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced throughout the previous month.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 29th consecutive month, finishing 1.1% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 2.0%, while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the fourth consecutive month during Mar ’18. 84% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Mar ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 16% percent of the Mar ’18 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the Ohio, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Virginia and Florida milk cow herds more than offset increases in the Texas, Arizona, Colorado and South Dakota milk cow herds experienced during Mar ’18.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas (+11,000 head) and Colorado (+11,000 head), followed by Idaho (+9,000 head). California (-18,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 51st consecutive month during Mar ’18, finishing up 1.3% to a new monthly record high.
- The Mar ’18 U.S. dairy cow herd declined 4,000 head from the originally stated Feb ’18 figure and 2,000 head from 22 year high Feb ’18 revised figure.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 29th consecutive month during Mar ’18, finishing up 1.1%.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the Mar ’18 YOY growth rate of 1.3% was the smallest experienced throughout the past three months on a percentage basis.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+7.4%), followed by Utah (+5.5%) and Texas (+4.8%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Florida, Oregon, Vermont, New York, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Mar ’18, finishing up 2.7%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY gains.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Mar ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.6% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho. The aforementioned states accounted for over three quarters of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production were most significant throughout Minnesota and New York.
Overall, the Mar ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 4,000 head from the originally stated Feb ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Feb ’18 revised figure. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.406 million head, which is 23,000 head more than March of last year and just 2,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced throughout the previous month.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 29th consecutive month, finishing 1.1% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 2.0%, while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the fourth consecutive month during Mar ’18. 84% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Mar ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 16% percent of the Mar ’18 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the Ohio, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Virginia and Florida milk cow herds more than offset increases in the Texas, Arizona, Colorado and South Dakota milk cow herds experienced during Mar ’18.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas (+11,000 head) and Colorado (+11,000 head), followed by Idaho (+9,000 head). California (-18,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.