U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Jul ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Placements in feedlots during Jul ‘19 totaled 1.705 million head, down 37,000 head, or 2.1%, from July of last year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Placements finished 39,000 head, or 2.2%, below analyst expectations. Placements for those weighing 600 pounds or less declined the most on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’19, finishing down 12.2%, followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-10.3%) and 700-799 pounds (-1.2%). Placements weighing 800 pounds or more increased 7.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month. Total placements in feedlots increased 2.4% YOY throughout the ’17-’18 production season, finishing at a seven year seasonal high level, but have declined 1.2% YOY throughout the first ten months of the ’18-’19 production season.
Jul ’19 cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 80,000 head, or 11.4%, on a YOY basis, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 6.7% throughout the ’17-’18 production season, reaching a four year high, but have declined 4.0% YOY throughout the first ten months of the ’18-’19 production season.
Jul ’19 cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 43,000 head, or 4.1%, on a YOY basis, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% YOY throughout the ’17-’18 production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more have increased 0.8% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, and are on pace to reach a record high annual level.
Marketings of fed cattle during Jul ’19 totaled 2.002 million head, up 129,000 head, or 6.9%, from July of last year, reaching an 11 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in marketings was the third experienced throughout the past four months and was tied for the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. Marketings finished 9,000 head, or 0.5%, above analyst expectations. ’17-’18 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 2.0% YOY, reaching a seven year high seasonal level, while ’18-’19 YTD marketings have increased an additional 1.6% throughout the first ten months of the production season and are on pace to reach an 11 year high level. Other disappearance totaled 71,000 head during Jul ’19, up 8,000 head, or 12.7%, from the previous year.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Aug 1st finished higher on a YOY basis for the 32nd consecutive month, increasing 0.2% to a record high seasonal level for the month of August. The cattle on feed supply finished 0.6% below analyst expectations, however.
- Jul ’19 placements in feedlots declined 2.1% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.1% YOY increase in placements weighing 700 pounds or more. Total placements finished 2.2% below analyst expectations.
- Marketings of fed cattle increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jul ’19, finishing up 6.9% to an 11 year seasonal high level. Marketings finished 0.5% above analyst expectations.
Placements in feedlots during Jul ‘19 totaled 1.705 million head, down 37,000 head, or 2.1%, from July of last year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Placements finished 39,000 head, or 2.2%, below analyst expectations. Placements for those weighing 600 pounds or less declined the most on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’19, finishing down 12.2%, followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-10.3%) and 700-799 pounds (-1.2%). Placements weighing 800 pounds or more increased 7.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month. Total placements in feedlots increased 2.4% YOY throughout the ’17-’18 production season, finishing at a seven year seasonal high level, but have declined 1.2% YOY throughout the first ten months of the ’18-’19 production season.
Jul ’19 cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 80,000 head, or 11.4%, on a YOY basis, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 6.7% throughout the ’17-’18 production season, reaching a four year high, but have declined 4.0% YOY throughout the first ten months of the ’18-’19 production season.
Jul ’19 cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 43,000 head, or 4.1%, on a YOY basis, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% YOY throughout the ’17-’18 production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more have increased 0.8% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, and are on pace to reach a record high annual level.
Marketings of fed cattle during Jul ’19 totaled 2.002 million head, up 129,000 head, or 6.9%, from July of last year, reaching an 11 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in marketings was the third experienced throughout the past four months and was tied for the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. Marketings finished 9,000 head, or 0.5%, above analyst expectations. ’17-’18 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 2.0% YOY, reaching a seven year high seasonal level, while ’18-’19 YTD marketings have increased an additional 1.6% throughout the first ten months of the production season and are on pace to reach an 11 year high level. Other disappearance totaled 71,000 head during Jul ’19, up 8,000 head, or 12.7%, from the previous year.