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March ’13 USDA Grain Stocks Report

  • March 28, 2013
  • by wbabler
March ’13 USDA Stocks Report
  • Corn – Very Bearish
    • Projections of 5.399 billion were well above expectations with average trade estimates near 5 billion bushels.
    • Implied feed and residual usage was the main unknown variable and it came in at 1 billion bushels. The implied feed usage was down sharply indicating either substitutions with feed wheat and other small grains or simply a statistical aberration.
    • Given the slow pace of exports and rationing of some ethanol capacity, ending stocks for old crop 2012/2013 should be projected to come in close to 1 billion bushels versus current estimates around 632 million bushels.
  • Soybeans –Bearish
    • Projections were above expectations at 999 million bushels versus average estimates of 935 million.
    • This should soften the old crop 2012/2013 balance sheet but with exports trending above USDA projections it will likely remain very tight.
  • Wheat – Bearish
    • Projections were above expectations at 1.23 billion bushels versus average estimates of 1.11 billion.
    • Given the higher stocks for corn, it would have been expected that feed inventories end lower with higher takeaway for feed but this was not the case. Wheat inventories remain at high levels and tightness is not a concern for old crop 2012/2013.
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-28-2013.pdf  
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September 2013 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
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