U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Oct ’14
Butter – Production Remains Weak, Down 2.4% YOY According to USDA, Aug ’14 U.S. butter production declined 4.3% MOM and 2.4% YOY. Aug ’14 butter production was 5.9 million lbs lower than Jul ’14 production, which was the largest Jul – Aug production decline in four years. Lower production has resulted in a significant decline in butter stocks and a subsequent increase in domestic butter prices. Aug ’14 butter stocks ended 37.4% below the previous year’s level and the Sep ’14 announced butter price of $2.85 was double that of last year. ’13-’14 YTD butter production remains 2.4% lower than the previous year through August. Cheese – YOY Production Growth Continues Despite Weaker Cheddar Production U.S. cheese production increased YOY for the 17th straight month as Aug ’14 production registered a 0.9% YOY gain. The YOY gain of 0.9% was the lowest in six months, partially due to lower cheddar cheese production, which declined 1.9% YOY. ’13-’14 YTD total cheese production is 2.4% higher than the previous year through August, with cheddar cheese production up 0.8% YTD. Dry Products – Dry Whey Production Declines, Combined SMP/NFDM Production Increases U.S. dry whey production declined 5.1% YOY and 8.0% MOM. The YOY decline in whey production was the 14th in the last 16 months as manufacturers continue to shift to higher-value whey protein products including whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI). ’13-’14 YTD U.S. dry whey production is down 9.4%, however YTD WPC and WPI production are up 21.7% and 7.1%, respectively. Despite weaker MOM and YOY production, dry whey stocks declined 8.4% MOM, or 5.3 million lbs, to a total of 58.2 million lbs. Aug ’14 dry whey stocks are down 9.4% YOY, although stocks remain 16.4% higher than the five year average August dry whey stocks. U.S. NFDM production remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 11.6%, but declined seasonally MOM, with production 28.9% lower than the previous month. SMP production rebounded from the Jul ’14 low, increasing 96.8% MOM, but remained 2.5% below last year’s production level. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, has experienced YOY production declines for three straight months as powder exports have begun to experience relative weakness. Combined production of NFDM and SMP declined 11.2% MOM but increased YOY for the sixth straight month, with production 6.8% higher than the previous year. NFDM stocks declined MOM off the all-time record high experienced in Jul ’14. NFDM stocks declined by 6.8 million lbs, or 2.7%, but remain 25.3% higher than last year and 58.0% higher than the five year average August NFDM stocks. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Aug ’14.