EU-28 Milk Production Remains Strong – Oct ’14
According to Eurostat, Aug ’14 EU-28 milk production continued the recent trend of production growth, increasing 4.4% YOY. Monthly production of 12.4 million MT (27.3 billion lbs) set a new record high for August, although production declined 2.9% MOM on a daily average basis as milk production continues to seasonally decline until lows are typically reached in November. Absolute monthly YOY production gains were led by France (+118,610 MT), Germany (+98,650 MT), and the U.K. (+79,500 MT). Malta, Greece, Spain and the Netherlands were the only member states with lower YOY production, with production declining 6.6%, 2.7%, 2.0% and 0.7%, respectively. The EU-28 has experienced 14 consecutive months of YOY monthly production gains. The Aug ’14 YOY production gain of 4.4% was in line with the average 4.5% YOY gain over the period, with the relatively strong production attributed to good milk prices, favorable weather, expanding dairy herds and more than adequate feed and forage supplies. According to USDA AMS, farmgate milk prices have declined of late, but are not to a level to prompt producers to lower milk production or reduce herd sizes. ’14-’15 YTD EU-28 production is up 5.1% through the first five months of the production season. Going forward, EU-28 milk production may be affected by the Russian ban of EU dairy exports announced in early August. According to USDA, in 2013 Russia accounted for 33% of EU cheese exports, 25% of EU butter exports, and 27% of EU AMF exports with total 2013 EU exports into Russia estimated to equal 1.5% of EU’s milk production. According to USDA AMS, undetermined volumes of Eastern European raw milk and cream are finding their way to Belarus manufacturing facilities, with the assumption that some of the manufactured dairy products from these shipments are being exported to Russia. September EU-28 milk production figures will be released in late November.