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U.S. Crude Oil & Natural Gas Parallels – Jan…

  • January 28, 2015
  • by wbabler
Parallels between the ’08-’09 decline in natural gas prices and the current decline in crude oil prices are evident, despite the decline in crude oil prices being in a relatively infant state. When indexed to the relative price peaks preceding the declines (Jun ’08 for natural gas and Jun ’14 for crude oil), crude oil prices have fallen at a slower rate through six months, although the rate of decline has accelerated of late. Declines in natural gas and crude oil rig counts followed the prices downward, with the decline in natural gas rigs also falling at a sharper rate through six months. Despite the decline in rigs, however, natural gas withdrawals continued at a strong rate, increasing by 5.6% over the two year period following the Jun ’08 relative price peak. Crude oil production has also remained steady to higher, increasing to new highs in Jan ’15 despite a 15.1% decline in crude oil rigs from the peak reached in Oct ’14. If crude oil production continues to follow the same trajectory as natural gas, a continued decline in crude oil rigs may not translate to lower crude oil production. Resilient Production Despite a Collapse in Price and Rigs Experienced in Both Markets US Natural Gas vs Crude Oil Declines - Jan
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