EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – May ’15
According to the EIA’s May Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through Jun ’15. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth during 2011-2013. May ’15 shale production was revised higher by approximately 82,200 barrels per day (bpd) but is expected to remain approximately 54,200 barrels per day below Apr ’15 production. Jun ’15 production is expected to decline an additional 86,200 bpd, or 1.5%, from May ’15 revised production levels to 5.56 million bpd, a five month low. The projected MOM declines in oil production throughout May – Jun ’15 would be the first experienced since Feb ’11, with the projected Jun ’15 decline being the largest experienced since the report was originated in 2007. Projected MOM declines in oil production were led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 2.8%, 2.4% and 3.8%, respectively in Jun ’15. Growth is expected to continue within the Permian region, with projected production up 0.3% MOM in Jun ’15.