Skip to content
800-884-8290

|

Client Login

|

Open an Account
  • About Us
  • Services
    • Futures & Options Brokerage
    • Organic Grain Swaps
    • Margin Management
    • Commodity Marketing Education
    • Consulting & Insurance
  • Research
    • Dairy
    • Livestock
    • Grain & Oilseeds
    • Ethanol & Biodiesel
  • Account
  • Quotes
  • Contact Us

U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Nov ’15

  • November 25, 2015
  • by wbabler
All Milk – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY on Milk-Fat Basis, Declines YOY on Skim-Solids Basis According to USDA, Sep ’15 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis declined 2.3% MOM from the all-time record high experienced in Aug ’15 but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 1.6% to a record high for the month of September. Commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined YOY for the first time in ten months, however, finishing 3.1% below the previous year. Domestic demand remained strong on a milk-fat basis, finishing up 2.4% YOY but finished 6.5% lower than the previous year on a skim-solids basis. ’14-’15 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished up 0.9% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.1% YOY on a skim-solids basis, with domestic demand finishing up 3.2% on a milk-fat basis and 2.3% on a skim-solids basis. Monthly US All Milk Commercial Disappearance - Nov Monthly US All Milk Commercial Disappearance2 - Nov Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY for Second Consecutive Month Despite Weak Export Demand Sep ’15 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.7% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher YOY, finishing 4.5% above the previous year. Butter disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis despite international demand continuing to remain weak. Sep ’15 domestic butter demand finished up 7.4% YOY while international demand declined 82.7% YOY. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for 17 consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at a premium to international prices and the U.S. Dollar has appreciated vs. rival currencies. Despite the recent increases in butter disappearance, ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.2% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in exports more than offset a 1.6% increase in domestic demand. Monthly US Butter Commercial Disappearance - Nov Cheese – Disappearance Reaches Record High for the Month of September, Finishes up 1.6% YOY Sep ’15 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance remained strong, increasing 3.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 1.6% YOY to a new record high for the month of September. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the seventh experienced in the past eight months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance was particularly strong, increasing by 1.9% YOY while American cheese disappearance finished up 1.0% YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 3.0% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 20.3% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 12 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 11 consecutive months through September. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 1.7% YOY to a new record annual high as a 2.9% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. Monthly US Cheese Commercial Disappearance - Nov Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases Sharply to a 15 Year High for the Month of September Sep ’15 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased sharply, finishing up 27.6% YOY and 17.8% MOM on a daily average basis to a 15 year high for the month of September. Domestic dry whey commercial disappearance remained strong, increasing YOY for the ninth consecutive month and finishing 91.6% above the previous year, however U.S. dry whey export demand remained weak, finishing down 32.2% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% YOY as a 26.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 17.9% decline in export demand. Monthly US Dry Whey Commercial Disappearance - Nov NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines Sharply, Finishes Down 24.1% YOY Sep ’15 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance declined 14.7% MOM on a daily average basis and 24.1% YOY to a three year low for the month of September. Declines in commercial disappearance were exhibited despite NFDM/SMP exports increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in four months during Sep ’15. Domestic NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance declined sharply on a YOY basis, finishing 58.2% below the three year high experienced in September of 2014. Despite the decline, ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.8% YOY as a 12.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 4.7% decline in export demand. Monthly US NFDM-SMP Commercial Disappearance - Nov Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures Sep ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.12 billion pounds declined YOY for the 20th time in the past 21 months, finishing 1.2% below the previous year. Total fluid milk sales continued to increase seasonally from the record low reached in Jul ’15 but remained at the lowest figure on record for the month of September. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 4.7% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 9.7% YOY. ’14-’15 annual total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8%. Monthly US Fluid Milk Sales - Nov See the table below for a summary of key Sep ’15 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Sep ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales figure. US Commercial Disappearance percentage change - Nov
U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Nov ’15
New Zealand Milk Production Update – Nov ’15
Dairy
Ethanol
Livestock
Grain

Recent Dairy Research

  • Food Service Sales Update – Mar ’24
  • U.S. Dairy Trade Update – Sep ’23
  • Food Service Sales Update – Dec ’22
  • Global Dairy Trade Update 11-15-22
  • Dairy Products Production – Jul ’29
Atten Babler Commodities LLC
11406 US Route 20 W
Galena, IL 61036
800-884-8290
Privacy Policy
Atten Babler Commodities, a DBA of Pinion Futures LLC is a CFTC registered Introducing Broker and NFA Member (NFA #0284447) is a fully owned subsidiary of Pinion Risk Management LLC. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results or profitability. Futures and options trading involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Clients may lose more than their initial investment. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by PF shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. PF does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.


Atten Babler Insurance Services a DBA of Pinion Commodities Solutions LLC is an equal opportunity provider and employer. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the bases of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, martial status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment, or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities. This publication is brought to you by Atten Babler Insurance Services and is intended for informational purposes only. Nothing contained herein can or should be interpreted to take precedence over policy language, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation/Risk Management Agency regulation, and Underwriting or Loss Adjustment rules.
© Copyright 2025 Atten Babler Commodities LLC