U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Feb ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
Despite export volumes remaining higher on a YOY basis, total import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 33rd time in the past 35 months during Dec ’17. U.S. butterfat import volumes increased to a 21 month high throughout the month. The U.S. has remained a net importer of butter despite domestic butter prices trading below international average prices over nine consecutive months through Dec ’17. Global butter prices have reached parity over more recent months, however, as declines in EU-28 prices have continued.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the First Time in the Past 15 Months, Finish Down 4.4%
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months, finishing down 4.4%. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 8.1% YOY, finishing higher for the 11th consecutive month, however other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 6.1% lower YOY throughout the month.
Dec ’17 YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan, Mexico and Canada. Cheese export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries declined by a total of 23.6% throughout the month, offsetting increases in cheese export volumes destined to other countries. Export volumes destined to Australia, Saudi Arabia and China remained strong throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.8% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recently experienced decline.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase YOY for the 16th Time in the Past 18 Months, Finish up 9.3%
Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 9.3% YOY, finishing higher for the 16th time in the past 18 months. Overall, dry whey export volumes finished at a six year seasonal high for the month of December. Dec ’17 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, which increased by 21.4% YOY. Excluding China, U.S. dry whey export volumes declined by 0.1% throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 24.0% YOY, Finish at a Record December Seasonal High
Dec ’17 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 24.0% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. Dec ’17 WPC export volumes increased to a record seasonal high for the month of December, finishing 56.3% above three year average figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 15.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 29.1% YOY, Finish at a Record December Seasonal High
Dec ’17 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 29.1% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Overall, Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record high seasonal level for the month of December, finishing 42.7% above three year average figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 36th consecutive month during Dec ’17, trading at an 8.8% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Dec ’17 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were fairly widespread across major destinations and led by product destined to Peru, followed by volumes destined to Pakistan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico and Algeria. Export volumes destined to Indonesia, Brazil and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high however ’17-’18 YTD figures have declined 6.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the recently experienced gains.
U.S. butterfat, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher than the previous year during Dec ’17, while cheese export volumes finished slightly lower on a percentage of production basis. Dec ’17 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.0% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Dec ’17, while dairy import volumes were equivalent to approximately 3.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Dec ’17 net dairy trade finished 27.9% higher YOY, the largest YOY gain experienced throughout the past nine months.
Dec ’17 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 17.2% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 6.9% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final quarter of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 5.0% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 9.8%, finishing lower for the seventh time in the past eight months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 7.0% throughout the first quarter of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset over half of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 33rd time in the past 35 months.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes increased 17.5% YOY, finishing higher for the eighth time in the past nine months. The U.S. remained a net importer of butter for the 33rd time in the past 35 months, however, as import volumes increased to a 21 month high throughout the month.
- U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months, finishing down 4.4%, however U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 9.3% YOY, finishing higher for the 16th time in the past 18 months. U.S. whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes each increased to record seasonal highs, finishing up 24.0% YOY and 29.1% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis finished 27.9% higher on a YOY basis, the largest gain experienced throughout the past nine months. Higher export volumes were coupled with reduced import volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis throughout the month.
Despite export volumes remaining higher on a YOY basis, total import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 33rd time in the past 35 months during Dec ’17. U.S. butterfat import volumes increased to a 21 month high throughout the month. The U.S. has remained a net importer of butter despite domestic butter prices trading below international average prices over nine consecutive months through Dec ’17. Global butter prices have reached parity over more recent months, however, as declines in EU-28 prices have continued.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the First Time in the Past 15 Months, Finish Down 4.4%
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months, finishing down 4.4%. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 8.1% YOY, finishing higher for the 11th consecutive month, however other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 6.1% lower YOY throughout the month.
Dec ’17 YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan, Mexico and Canada. Cheese export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries declined by a total of 23.6% throughout the month, offsetting increases in cheese export volumes destined to other countries. Export volumes destined to Australia, Saudi Arabia and China remained strong throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.8% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recently experienced decline.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase YOY for the 16th Time in the Past 18 Months, Finish up 9.3%
Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 9.3% YOY, finishing higher for the 16th time in the past 18 months. Overall, dry whey export volumes finished at a six year seasonal high for the month of December. Dec ’17 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, which increased by 21.4% YOY. Excluding China, U.S. dry whey export volumes declined by 0.1% throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 24.0% YOY, Finish at a Record December Seasonal High
Dec ’17 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 24.0% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. Dec ’17 WPC export volumes increased to a record seasonal high for the month of December, finishing 56.3% above three year average figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 15.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 29.1% YOY, Finish at a Record December Seasonal High
Dec ’17 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 29.1% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Overall, Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record high seasonal level for the month of December, finishing 42.7% above three year average figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 36th consecutive month during Dec ’17, trading at an 8.8% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Dec ’17 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were fairly widespread across major destinations and led by product destined to Peru, followed by volumes destined to Pakistan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico and Algeria. Export volumes destined to Indonesia, Brazil and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high however ’17-’18 YTD figures have declined 6.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the recently experienced gains.
U.S. butterfat, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher than the previous year during Dec ’17, while cheese export volumes finished slightly lower on a percentage of production basis. Dec ’17 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.0% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Dec ’17, while dairy import volumes were equivalent to approximately 3.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Dec ’17 net dairy trade finished 27.9% higher YOY, the largest YOY gain experienced throughout the past nine months.
Dec ’17 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 17.2% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 6.9% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final quarter of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 5.0% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 9.8%, finishing lower for the seventh time in the past eight months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 7.0% throughout the first quarter of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset over half of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 33rd time in the past 35 months.