U.S. Milk Production Update – Jul ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season prior to reaching a two year low growth rate during Apr ’18. The Jun ’18 YOY growth rate of 1.2% was the largest experienced throughout the past three months.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+10.7%), followed by Kansas (+7.4%) and Texas (+6.6%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Vermont and Pennsylvania while remaining flat throughout Illinois.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Jun ’18, finishing up 0.5%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the six most recent YOY gains.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jun ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Colorado and Wisconsin. Texas, Colorado and Wisconsin combined to account for nearly two thirds of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida and Ohio.
Overall, the Jun ’18 U.S. milk cow herd finished flat with the May ’18 figure, remaining at a four month high. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.404 million head, which is flat on a YOY basis while remaining 4,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced during the early months of 2018.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 32nd consecutive month, finishing 1.2% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, while yields throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, finishing up 0.3% YOY.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the seventh consecutive month during Jun ’18. 100% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Jun ’18 as herd expansion growth finished flat YOY.
MOM increases in the Colorado, Texas, Utah and New Mexico milk cow herds offset declines in the Pennsylvania, New York, Minnesota and Indiana milk cow herds experienced during Jun ’18.
Jun ’18 YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Colorado (+17,000 head), followed by Texas (+11,000 head) and Kansas (+7,000 head). California (-14,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 54th consecutive month during Jun ’18, finishing up 1.2% to a record seasonal high for the month of June.
- The Jun ’18 U.S. dairy cow herd finished flat with the May ’18 figure, remaining at a four month high. The U.S. dairy cow herd also finished flat with the previous year figures while remaining 4,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced during the early months of 2018.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 32nd consecutive month during Jun ’18, finishing up 1.2%, as Western yields increased for the sixth consecutive month while Midwestern yields also finished higher on a YOY basis.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season prior to reaching a two year low growth rate during Apr ’18. The Jun ’18 YOY growth rate of 1.2% was the largest experienced throughout the past three months.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+10.7%), followed by Kansas (+7.4%) and Texas (+6.6%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Vermont and Pennsylvania while remaining flat throughout Illinois.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Jun ’18, finishing up 0.5%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the six most recent YOY gains.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jun ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Colorado and Wisconsin. Texas, Colorado and Wisconsin combined to account for nearly two thirds of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida and Ohio.
Overall, the Jun ’18 U.S. milk cow herd finished flat with the May ’18 figure, remaining at a four month high. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.404 million head, which is flat on a YOY basis while remaining 4,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced during the early months of 2018.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 32nd consecutive month, finishing 1.2% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, while yields throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, finishing up 0.3% YOY.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the seventh consecutive month during Jun ’18. 100% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Jun ’18 as herd expansion growth finished flat YOY.
MOM increases in the Colorado, Texas, Utah and New Mexico milk cow herds offset declines in the Pennsylvania, New York, Minnesota and Indiana milk cow herds experienced during Jun ’18.
Jun ’18 YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Colorado (+17,000 head), followed by Texas (+11,000 head) and Kansas (+7,000 head). California (-14,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.