Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Aug ’18
Jun ’18 ethanol rail movements of 20.0 million barrels increased 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis from the six month low experienced during the previous month but finished down 9.9% YOY. Total ethanol rail movements remained 9.2% above historical average figures reported since the beginning of 2010, however. The Jun ’18 YOY decline in ethanol rail movements was the second experienced in a row. Despite the recently experienced declines, 2018 YTD rail movements remain up 2.6% YOY and are on pace to reach a record annual high. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 69% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Jun ’18 ethanol rail movements accounted for 67.4% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, finishing at a five month low. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. Over 97% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Jun ’18, with the remaining volumes originating in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast). Over 8.5 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Jun ’18, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for 43% of the total shipments during Jun ’18. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) consisted of 90% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) and Canada. Jun ’18 ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) remained most significantly above historical average figures while ethanol movements destined to PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountains) each finished lower throughout the month.