U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Sep ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.1% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Jul ’19, finishing down 8.9%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 35.6% YOY during Jul ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven and a half years on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 4.0% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 2.2% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past seven months. Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record, however, finishing 11.4% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of July. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Canada and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea and Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 9.6%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the second consecutive month during Jul ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level and a six year seasonal high. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 48.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Broilers – Exports Increase to a Five Year Seasonal High Level, Net Trade Finishes up 3.3% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 3.5% YOY, reaching a five year seasonal high level. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, Georgia and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Africa, Turkey and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Georgia and Vietnam, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jul ’19, finishing up 13.2%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Jul ’19 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in broiler import volumes during Jul ’19, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 3.3% YOY. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 2.3% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’19, increasing by 157.6 million pounds, or 18.1%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on both an absolute and percentage basis.
- Jul ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 35.6% to a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 26.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 2.2%, however net beef trade remained at a positive level, reaching a six year seasonal high.
- U.S. net broiler trade increased 3.3% YOY during Jul ’19 as export volumes reached a five year seasonal high level.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.1% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Jul ’19, finishing down 8.9%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 35.6% YOY during Jul ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven and a half years on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 4.0% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 2.2% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past seven months. Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record, however, finishing 11.4% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of July. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Canada and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea and Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Jul ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 9.6%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the second consecutive month during Jul ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level and a six year seasonal high. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 48.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Broilers – Exports Increase to a Five Year Seasonal High Level, Net Trade Finishes up 3.3% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 3.5% YOY, reaching a five year seasonal high level. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, Georgia and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Africa, Turkey and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Georgia and Vietnam, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jul ’19, finishing up 13.2%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Jul ’19 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in broiler import volumes during Jul ’19, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 3.3% YOY. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 2.3% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’19, increasing by 157.6 million pounds, or 18.1%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on both an absolute and percentage basis.