Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Sep ’20
According to the EIA, Jun ’20 ethanol rail movements rebounded 51.4% MOM on a daily average basis from the record low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 20.9% below previous year levels, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Monthly ethanol rail movements have been compiled since the beginning of 2010. 2019 annual ethanol rail movements declined 4.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low level, while 2020 YTD figures have declined by an additional 15.0% YOY throughout the first half of the calendar year. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 69% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Jun ’20 ethanol rail movements accounted for 65.8% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, declining to a five month low level. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. 100% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Jun ’20. Over 6.8 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Jun ’20, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for 40% of the total shipments during Jun ’20. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) accounted for 90% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), Canada and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain). Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 5 (West Coast) finished most significantly above historical average figures throughout Jun ’20 while ethanol movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) finished most significantly below historical average figures.