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Soybean Complex Crushing & Stocks Update – Oct ’20

  • October 2, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • U.S. soybean crushings declined 1.6% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past nine months.
  • U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 1.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level.
  • U.S. soybean oil stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing up 10.7%.
Additional Report Details Soybean Crushing – Crush Declines YOY for the First Time in Nine Months, Finishes Down 1.6% YOY According to the USDA, Aug ’20 U.S. soybean crushings declined 5.3% from the previous month while finishing 1.6% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in soybean crushings was the first experienced throughout the past nine months. Aug ’20 YOY declines in soybean crushings were largest throughout the South, West and Pacific states of Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina, followed by the North & East states of Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The 5.3% month-over-month decline in soybean crushings was greater than the three year average July – August seasonal decline of 2.9%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Aug ’20 soybean crushings remained 5.1% above three year average seasonal figures. 2019 annual soybean crushings finished 0.7% below the record high annual levels experienced throughout the previous year however 2020 YTD soybean crushings have rebounded by 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the calendar year, despite the most recent decline. Cake & meal accounted for 73.5% of the total soybean crush throughout Aug ’20, up slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.4% of the total soybean crush, down slightly from the previous year. Aug ’20 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush rebounded to an 11 month high level, finishing slightly above historical average figures for the first time in the past 11 months. Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 1.0% YOY Aug ’20 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 5.6% from the previous month but remained 1.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in soybean cake & meal stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in soybean cake & meal stocks of 5.6% was smaller than the three year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 11.8%. Aug ’20 soybean cake & meal stocks finished 12.6% above three year average seasonal levels, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Remain Higher YOY for the Eighth Time in Nine Months, up 10.7% Aug ’20 U.S. soybean oil stocks declined 10.3% from the previous month, reaching a nine month low level but remaining 10.7% higher on a YOY basis. Soybean oil stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis throughout eight consecutive months through Nov ’19 prior to finishing higher throughout eight of the past nine months. The month-over-month decline in soybean oil stocks of 10.3% was largely consistent with the three year average July – August seasonal decline of 9.6%. Aug ’20 soybean oil stocks finished 0.3% above three year average seasonal levels, finishing higher for the eighth time in the past nine months.  
Soybean Complex Price & Value Update – Oct ’20
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