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U.S. Cattle & Hogs Production Update – Oct ’20

  • October 23, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Sep ’20 U.S. commercial red meat production increased 1.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level.
  • U.S. pork production declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past four months. The total number of hogs slaughter declined 0.9% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY increase in average weights per head.
  • U.S. beef production increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The total number of cattle slaughter increased 0.5% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head increased 2.0% YOY.
Additional Report Details Total Red Meat – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.3% YOY According to the USDA, Sep ’20 U.S. commercial red meat increased seasonally to a six month high level while finishing 1.3% higher on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a record high seasonal level. Total red meat production had reached a 14 year low level throughout the month of April prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. The MOM increase in total red meat production of 2.5% was smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase of 5.5%, however. ’18-’19 annual red meat production increased 2.2% on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high level, while ’19-’20 annual red meat production increased by an additional 1.5%. Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 37th consecutive month throughout Sep ’20, although the most recent deviation from trendline remained significantly below the record high level experienced throughout Mar ’20. Pork – Production Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Four Months, Finishes Down 0.1% Sep ’20 U.S. pork production increased seasonally to a six month high level but finished 0.1% lower on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in pork production was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Sep ’20 pork production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, finishing 4.5% above three year average seasonal levels. The Sep ’20 total number of hogs slaughter declined 0.9% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY increase in average weights per head. The MOM increase in pork production of 1.9% was significantly smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase of 8.1%. ’18-’19 annual pork production increased 3.9% on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high level, while ’19-’20 annual pork production increased by an additional 3.3%, despite the most recent decline. Beef – Production Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 2.9% YOY Sep ’20 U.S. beef production increased to a 17 year high level, finishing 2.9% higher on a YOY basis and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef production was the third experienced in a row. The Sep ’20 total number of cattle slaughter increased 0.5% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 2.0% higher YOY. The MOM increase in beef production of 3.0% was largely consistent with the ten year average August – September seasonal increase of 3.4%. ’18-’19 annual beef production increased 0.6% on a YOY basis, finishing at a 16 year high level, however ’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% YOY, despite the most recent increase.  
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