U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Sep ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level but remained 18.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of September. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 15th experienced in a row. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 27.6 million pounds, or 7.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 21.8 million pounds, or 9.5%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 16.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to an Eight Month Low Level, Finish 1.0% Lower YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level while finishing 1.0% below previous year volumes, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past six months. American cheese stocks declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 1.9% lower YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 17.6 million pounds, or 1.3%, was slightly greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 10.2 million pounds, or 0.9%.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 0.2%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Sep ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the seventh consecutive month throughout Aug ’20, finishing 4.7% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Sep ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.8%. Sep ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available November 5th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 18.3% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level.
- Sep ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level, finishing 1.0% lower on a YOY basis and reaching a three year seasonal low level.
According to the USDA, Sep ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level but remained 18.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of September. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 15th experienced in a row. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 27.6 million pounds, or 7.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 21.8 million pounds, or 9.5%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 16.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to an Eight Month Low Level, Finish 1.0% Lower YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level while finishing 1.0% below previous year volumes, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past six months. American cheese stocks declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 1.9% lower YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 17.6 million pounds, or 1.3%, was slightly greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 10.2 million pounds, or 0.9%.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 0.2%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Sep ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the seventh consecutive month throughout Aug ’20, finishing 4.7% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Sep ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.8%. Sep ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available November 5th.