EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Nov ’20
According to the EIA’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to decline to a six month low level throughout the month of December. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. Nov ’20 production levels were revised 39,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5%, below levels previously forecasted, finishing 125,000 bpd, or 1.6%, below Oct ’20 production levels. Dec ’20 production levels are expected to decline an additional 139,000 bpd, or 1.8%, from the Nov ’20 revised production levels, reaching a six month low level. The Dec ’20 projected month-over-month decline in oil production would be the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months. Record large month-over-month declines in oil production were experienced throughout the months of April and May. Oil production is expected to decline most significantly from the previous month within the Permian (-37,000 bpd), Bakken (-32,500 bpd) and Eagle Ford (-27,000 bpd) regions. The expected declines in Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford production levels accounted for over two thirds of the total expected decline in production. Dec ’20 oil production is expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 17.9% below previous year levels. The projected YOY decline in Dec ’20 oil production would be the second largest on record, trailing only the May ’20 decline. Oct ’20 U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells declined 1.1% from the previous month, reaching a 22 month low level, overall. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month throughout Oct ’20, followed by Eagle Ford and Bakken DUC wells. Anadarko DUC wells declined to a 43 month low level, overall.