Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks finished 8.0% below previous year figures throughout Dec ’20, reaching a six year low seasonal level.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 14.5% but remaining below the 2017 record high seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Decline to a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 8.0% YOY

According to the USDA, Dec ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined to an 11 month low level while finishing 8.0% below previous year figures and reaching a six year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 1.5 million pounds, or 2.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal increase in dry whey stocks of 3.8 million pounds, or 8.9%. Dry whey production increased 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months.

On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 6.0% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Finish Higher on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month, up 14.5%

Dec ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a five month high level while finishing 14.5% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. NFDM stocks reached the second highest seasonal level on record but remained below the 2017 record high seasonal levels.

The month-over-month increase in NFDM stocks of 34.3 million pounds, or 13.8%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal increase in stocks of 16.3 million pounds, or 11.2%. NFDM production increased 24.1% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month and reaching the highest monthly figure on record.

On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 12.6% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 10.4%

Dec ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM rebounded seasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 10.4% higher on a YOY basis. Combined stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the 11^th consecutive month. The Dec ’20 YOY increase in combined stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis.