Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks reached a 23 year low seasonal level throughout Jan ’21, finishing 26.5% below previous year volumes.
• U.S. beef stocks remained at a four year high seasonal level throughout Jan ’21, finishing 6.3% above previous year levels.
• U.S. chicken stocks declined to a three year low level throughout Jan ‘21, finishing 14.6% lower on a YOY basis.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Reach a 23 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 26.5% on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Jan ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks rebounded from the ten year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 26.5% below previous year volumes, reaching a 23 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the tenth experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the ten most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 44.0 million pound, or 10.6%, was smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase in stocks of 69.7 million pounds, or 13.6%.

Beef – Stocks Remain at a Four Year High Seasonal Level, Finish up 6.3% on a YOY Basis

Jan ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined from the three and a half year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 6.3% higher on a YOY basis. Beef stocks remained at a four year high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 16.7 million pounds, or 3.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal increase in stocks of 13.8 million pounds, or 3.1%.

Chicken – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Low Level, Finish Down 14.6% on a YOY Basis

Jan ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined seasonally to a three year low level while finishing 14.6% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of January, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past six months. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 45.5 million pounds, or 5.3%, was larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal decline in stocks of 18.1 million pounds, or 2.2%.

Overall, Jan ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 13.2% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jan ’21 beef stocks finished nine percent below the record high historical storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 17% and 35% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Jan ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a seven year low seasonal level. Individually, Jan ’21 beef stocks finished four percent below the record high seasonal storage level while chicken and pork stocks finished 15% and 27% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.

The Jan ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the ninth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis.