Executive Summary

U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. soybean crushings declined 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 15 months.
• U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months throughout Feb ’21, finishing up 37.2% and reaching a record high monthly level for the second consecutive month.
• Feb ’21 U.S. soybean oil stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 6.3%.

Additional Report Details

Soybean Crushing – Crush Declines YOY for Just the Second Time in 15 Months, Finishes Down 2.9%

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 U.S. soybean crushings declined contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 2.9% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in soybean crushings was just the second experienced throughout the past 15 months. Soybean crushings had reached record high seasonal levels over five consecutive months through Jan ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the month of February.

Feb ’21 YOY declines in soybean crushings were largest throughout the West Central states of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. The 7.4% month-over-month decline in soybean crushings was a contraseasonal move when compared to the five year average January – February seasonal increase of 0.6%. 2020 annual soybean crushings finished 5.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high annual level.

Cake & meal accounted for 73.2% of the total soybean crush throughout Feb ’21, down slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.8% of the total soybean crush, up slightly from the previous year.

Feb ’21 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush declined slightly from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained above historical average figures for the fifth consecutive month. Soybean crush figures have been compiled since mid-2015.

Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Reach a Record High Monthly Level, up 37.2% YOY

U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks reached a record high monthly level for the second consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, finishing 37.2% above previous year levels. Soybean cake & meal stocks have been compiled since mid-2015. The YOY increase in soybean cake & meal stocks was the ninth experienced throughout the past 11 months. The month-over-month increase in soybean cake & meal stocks of 6.2% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the five year average January – February seasonal decline in stocks of 1.2%.

Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 6.3%

Feb ’21 U.S. soybean oil stocks declined contraseasonally from the seven month high experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 6.3% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in soybean oil stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 11 months on a percentage basis. Soybean oil stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through Nov ’20 prior to finishing lower throughout each of the past three months of available data. The month-over-month declined in soybean oil stocks of 0.6% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the five year average January – February seasonal increase of 5.7%.