Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 21^st consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, finishing up 14.5% and reaching a 28 year high seasonal level. The month-over-month seasonal increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 11 years, however.
• U.S. cheese stocks finished 6.7% above previous year levels throughout Mar ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain at a 28 Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 14.5% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level while finishing 14.5% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of March. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 21 consecutive months through Mar ’21, although the Mar ’21 YOY increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of <0.1 million pounds, or <0.1%, was smaller than the ten year average February – March seasonal increase of 10.3 million pounds, or 4.8%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year. The February – March seasonal increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 11 years.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing up 8.4%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 6.7% Higher YOY

Mar ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to an 11 month high level while finishing 6.7% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 6.1% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 30.0 million pounds, or 2.1%, was greater than the ten year average February – March seasonal increase of 14.6 million pounds, or 1.2%.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the first time in the past three months, finishing up 6.5%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Mar ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the 13^th consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, finishing 7.3% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 6.7% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Mar ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available May 4^th.