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U.S. Cattle & Hogs Production Update – Apr ’21

  • April 23, 2021April 23, 2021
  • by Belinda Przybylski

Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

  • Mar ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined 3.0% on a YOY basis but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.
  • U.S. pork production declined 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. A 5.6% YOY decline in the total number of hogs slaughtered more than offset a 1.0% YOY increase in average weights per head.
  • U.S. beef production declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. A 1.2% YOY decline in the total number of cattle slaughtered more than offset a 0.3% YOY increase in average weights per head.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines 3.0% YOY but Remains High, Historically

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined 3.0% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 red meat production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Red meat production increased at a 35 year high growth rate throughout March of 2020 as slaughter rates were ramped up prior to COVID-19 related plant closures.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has declined by 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 43rd consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, although the most recent deviation from trendline remained significantly below the record high level experienced throughout Mar ’20.

Pork – Production Declines 4.7% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record

Mar ’21 U.S. pork production declined 4.7% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 pork production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The Mar ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 5.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.0% YOY increase in average weights per head. The number of hogs slaughtered has declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Mar ’21.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has declined by 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Beef – Production Declines 1.2% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record

Mar ’21 U.S. beef production declined 1.2% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 beef production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The Mar ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY increase in average weights per head. The number of cattle slaughtered has declined on a YOY basis over four of the past five months through Mar ’21.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Apr ’21
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