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U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Apr ’21

  • April 23, 2021April 23, 2021
  • by Belinda Przybylski

Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

  • U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Apr 1st increased 5.3% YOY, finishing higher for the ninth consecutive month. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations, however.
  • Placements in feedlots increased 28.3% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in placements finished below analyst expectations, however.
  • Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a 21 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings finished slightly above analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Apr 1st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined seasonally from the previous month but remained 5.3% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the ninth experienced in a row. The 5.3% YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations of a 6.1% increase, however. The month-over-month decline in the cattle on feed supply of 0.9% was larger than the ten year average March – April decline of 0.1%.

The Apr ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 7.41 million steers and steer calves, up 4.6% from 2020 levels, and 4.49 million heifers and heifer calves, up 6.5% from the previous year.

Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, increasing by 28.3%. The 28.3% YOY increase in placements finished below average analyst expectations of a 33.7% increase, however. Placements were significantly reduced in March of 2020 as COVID-19 outbreaks closed slaughterhouses and slowed meat processing. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (+47.7%), followed by placements weighing less than 600 pounds (+30.6%), placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+24.4%) and placements weighing 800 pounds or more (+22.7%).

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 37.7% on a YOY basis during Mar ’21, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 23.4% on a YOY basis during Mar ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a 21 year high seasonal level. The 1.5% YOY increase in marketings finished slightly above average analyst expectations of a 1.1% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May 2020 as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

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