Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 24^th time in the past 25 months throughout Jul ’21, finishing 2.0% above the previous year and remaining at a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by Texas and South Dakota. California milk production volumes finished below previous year levels for just the second time in the past 22 months.
• The Jun ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head below levels previously stated while the Jul ’21 figure declined an additional 3,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.50 million head, down 9,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 but remaining 128,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, finishing higher for the 68^th time in the past 69 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past 14 months, however, driven lower by reduced Western U.S. yields.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jul ’21 U.S. milk production volumes declined seasonally to a seven month low level but remained 2.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Milk production volumes have remained at record high seasonal levels over 14 consecutive months through Jul ’21. The month-over-month decline in production volumes of 2.3% was slightly smaller than the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in production of 2.8%.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes have rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 24 of the past 25 months through Jul ’21. The Jul ’21 YOY increase in production was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months however the 12-month rolling average growth rate remained near recently experienced 13 year high levels.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+17.0%), followed by Texas (+7.2%) and Indiana (+5.7%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Washington (-6.7%), Virginia (-2.4%) and New Mexico (-2.3%). Overall, 18 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 22 months throughout Jul ’21, finishing down 0.7%. California accounted for 18.0% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Six of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Jul ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 1.7% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jul ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Jul ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by Texas and South Dakota, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Washington, followed by California.

The Jun ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head below levels previous stated while the Jul ’21 figure declined an additional 3,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.50 million head, down 9,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 but remaining 128,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.7% above previous year levels throughout Jul ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 68^th time in the past 69 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past 14 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21 however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 1.5% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past seven months.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington, Colorado and Kansas, while the Wisconsin, Texas, South Dakota and Vermont milk cow herds increased from the previous month throughout Jul ’21.

Jul ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Wisconsin and South Dakota, while the Washington and Pennsylvania milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.