Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Aug 1^st declined 1.9% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was largely consistent with average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots declined 8.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in placements was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle declined 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Aug 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined to a 23 month low level, finishing 1.9% below previous year levels and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The 1.9% YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 1.8% decline.

Placements in feedlots finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, declining by 8.1%. The 8.1% YOY decline in placements was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 6.9% decline. YOY declines in placements were widespread across weight groupings and led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (-19.0%), followed by placements weighing 600 pounds or less (-10.7%), 700-799 pounds (-5.7%) and 800 pounds or more (-3.3%).

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 14.3% on a YOY basis during Jul ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season and are on pace to reach a five year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 4.2% on a YOY basis during Jul ’21, finishing below previous year levels for just the second time in the past eight months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Marketings of fed cattle declined 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. Cattle marketings reached a three year low seasonal level for the month of July. The 4.5% YOY decline in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 3.3% decline.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have rebounded by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season and are on pace to reach an 18 year high level, despite the most recent decline.