Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes declined to a three year low seasonal level throughout Jul ’21 as reduced volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset increased volumes destined to all other countries. Jul ’21 net pork trade also reached a three year low seasonal level, finishing 13.1% below previous year levels.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 17.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level, however net beef & veal trade remained at a negative level for the second consecutive month.
• U.S. net broiler trade remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, increasing by 1.7%.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Exports & Net Trade Decline to Three Year Low Seasonal Levels

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21, finishing at a three year low seasonal level. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining throughout the month of July. YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 61.6% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 14.1% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Jul ’21.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 13.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan remain elevated when compared to historical figures, however.

U.S. pork import volumes reached a four year high seasonal level throughout Jul ’21, finishing 22.1% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Jul ’21 U.S. net pork trade finishing 13.1% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level.

’19-’20 annual net pork trade increased 25.3% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD net pork trade has declined by 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, however.

Beef & Veal – Exports Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Net Trade Remains Negative

U.S. beef & veal export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for tenth consecutive month during Jul ’21, increasing by 17.9% and reaching a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico and Indonesia.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Jul ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing down 18.6%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the second consecutive month during Jul ’21, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a negative level.

’19-’20 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the first time in the past three years. ’20-’21 YTD net beef & veal trade has rebounded throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a ten year high annual level.

Broilers – Exports & Net Trade Remain Higher YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months

U.S. broiler export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, increasing by 1.5%. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Kazakhstan, while volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Vietnam and Georgia have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past four months during Jul ’21, declining by 7.0%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Jul ’21 imports amounted to just 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis during Jul ’21. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months.

’19-’20 annual net broiler trade finished up 2.7% YOY, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD net broiler trade increased by an additional 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jul ’21, finishing up 59.5 million pounds, or 6.6%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout Jul ’11, finishing below record high seasonal levels for the first time in the past five months.