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U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Nov ’21

  • November 5, 2021
  • by Belinda Przybylski

Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

  • U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12th time in the past 13 months throughout Sep ’21, finishing 19.7% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
  • Sep ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 2.2% above previous year levels. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Sep ’21 nonfat dry milk stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 19.7% YOY

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 month-end dry whey stocks declined seasonally to a three month low level while finishing 19.7% below previous year levels, remaining at a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the 12th experienced throughout the past 13 months.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 5.8%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 2.2%. Dry whey production declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year figures for the 14th time in the past 16 months.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 17.8% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 12th time in the past 13 months and reaching a five year low seasonal level.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline Seasonally to an 11 Month Low Level but Remain 2.2% Higher YOY

Sep ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 2.2% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Sep ’21 NFDM stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 14.3%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 22.8 million pounds, or 9.3%. The seasonal decline in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years on both an absolute and percentage basis. NFDM production declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 0.6% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 4.0% YOY

Sep ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 4.0% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of September. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 19 of the past 20 months through Sep ’21.

U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Nov ’21
Quarterly Australian Milk Production Update – Nov ’21
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Recent Dairy Research

  • Food Service Sales Update – Mar ’24
  • U.S. Dairy Trade Update – Sep ’23
  • Food Service Sales Update – Dec ’22
  • Global Dairy Trade Update 11-15-22
  • Dairy Products Production – Jul ’29
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