Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 13^th time in the past 14 months throughout Oct ’21, finishing 15.9% below previous year figures and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. Dry whey stocks reached a five year low level, overall.
• Oct ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined seasonally to a two year low level, finishing 5.9% below previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Decline to a Five Year Low Level, Finish Down 15.9% YOY

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 month-end dry whey stocks declined seasonally to a five year low level, finishing 15.9% below previous year levels and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the 13^th experienced throughout the past 14 months.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 5.2 million pounds, or 8.2%, was greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.4 million pounds, or 2.2%. Dry whey production increased 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21 but remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past six years.

On a days of usage basis, Oct ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 13.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 13^th time in the past 14 months and reaching a nine year low seasonal level.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Two Year Low Level, Finish Down 5.9% YOY

Oct ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined seasonally to a two year low level, finishing 5.9% below previous year levels. NFDM stocks reached the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past six years. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 42.5 million pounds, or 16.1%, was greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 10.9 million pounds, or 5.9%. The seasonal decline in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past eight years on a percentage basis. NFDM production declined 11.7% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21.

On a days of usage basis, Oct ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 7.3% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 3.4% YOY

Oct ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 3.4% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of October. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 20 of the past 21 months through Oct ’21.