Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Jan 1^st finished 0.6% above previous year figures, reaching a 14 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the first experienced throughout the past seven months. The cattle on feed supply finished above average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots increased 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in placements was larger than average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, reaching an 11 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations, however.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jan 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more increased contraseasonally to an 11 month high level while finishing 0.6% above previous year levels, reaching a 14 year high seasonal level for the month of January. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the first experienced throughout the past seven months. The cattle on feed supply finished above average analyst expectations of a 0.2% YOY decline.

The Jan ’22 cattle on feed inventory included 7.36 million steers and steer calves, down 0.5% from 2021 levels, and 4.68 million heifers and heifer calves, up 2.4% from the previous year.

Dec ’21 placements in feedlots declined seasonally to a five month low level but remained 6.5% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level. The 6.5% YOY increase in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a 2.6% increase. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600 pounds or less (+10.9%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (+8.0%), 700-799 pounds (+5.9%) and 800 pounds or more (+1.7%).

’20-’21 annual placements in feedlots rebounded 0.2% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’21-’22 YTD placements have increased by an additional 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 9.5% on a YOY basis during Dec ’21, reaching an 11 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the third experienced in a row. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’20-’21 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’21-’22 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have rebounded by 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 3.6% on a YOY basis during Dec ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the ’20-’21 production season, reaching a four year high level. ’21-’22 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have increased by an additional 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, reaching an 11 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was the second experienced in a row. The 0.2% YOY increase in marketings was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations of a 0.8% increase, however.

’20-’21 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 3.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a 13 year high level. ’21-’22 YTD marketings have increased by an additional 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.