Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Feb 1^st finished 0.8% above previous year figures, reaching a record high level. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was consistent with average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past four months. The YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Feb 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more reached a record high level, finishing 0.8% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past nine months. The 0.8% YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 0.7% YOY increase.

Jan ’22 placements in feedlots increased seasonally from the five month low level experienced throughout the previous month but finished 1.2% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in placements was the first experienced throughout the past four months. The 1.2% YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 0.8% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 700-799 pounds (-5.2%), followed by placements weighing 800 pounds or more (-1.7%). Placements finished above previous year levels in the 600-699 pound (+1.1%) and 600 pounds or less (+2.4%) weight groupings. The seasonal build in placements was the smallest experienced throughout the past 15 years.

’20-’21 annual placements in feedlots rebounded 0.2% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’21-’22 YTD placements have increased by an additional 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 1.8% on a YOY basis during Jan ’22, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the fourth experienced in a row.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’20-’21 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’21-’22 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have rebounded by 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 3.4% on a YOY basis during Jan ’22. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the largest experienced throughout the past four months.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the ’20-’21 production season, reaching a four year high level. ’21-’22 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have increased by an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in marketings was the first experienced throughout the past three months. The 3.1% YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 2.7% decline.

’20-’21 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 3.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a 13 year high level. ’21-’22 YTD marketings have declined by 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however.