EU-28 Milk Production Update – May ’16
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• EU-28 milk production growth continues to remain strong, finishing up 5.8% YOY in Mar ’16. The Mar ’16 YOY growth rate was the second largest experienced in the past 18 months, trailing only the Feb ’16 growth rate.
• YOY production gains continue to be led by the Netherlands, followed by Germany and Ireland. Ireland led all Member States in production gains on a percentage basis, finishing up 28.6%.
• Production growth remained strong despite slaughter rates continuing to trend higher. Feb ’16 EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months, finishing up 4.2%.
Additional Report Details
According to Eurostat, Mar ’16 EU-28 milk production increased YOY for the 12th consecutive month, finishing 5.8% above the previous year when assuming flat YOY growth throughout Slovenia. Mar ’16 production levels were the largest on record for the month of March. The recent YOY increases in production have corresponded with the expiration of the EU-28 milk production quota system at the end of Mar ’15.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth decelerated from Sep ’14 – Mar ’15 but has rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Mar ’16 YOY growth rate of 5.8% was the second largest experienced in the past 18 months, trailing only the Feb ’16 growth rate. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+178,500 MT), followed by Germany (+138,020 MT) and Ireland (+133,620 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and over half of the YOY production gains during Mar ’16. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Ireland (+28.6%), followed by Cyprus (+28.2%), Belgium (+22.6%), Luxembourg (+21.7%) and Bulgaria (+20.2%).
All ten of the top milk producing Member States with the exception of France and the United Kingdom experienced YOY gains in milk production during Mar ’16, increasing by a weighted average of 6.8% YOY. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month.
Feb ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased 8.2% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing 4.2% higher YOY when assuming flat YOY growth throughout Austria. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by France, followed by Poland, Italy and Spain.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. The Feb ’16 YOY increase in slaughter rates of 4.2% YOY was the third largest YOY growth rate experienced since quota expiration. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over seven of the nine months through February. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower heading into 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first 11 months of the ’15-’16 production season.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth decelerated from Sep ’14 – Mar ’15 but has rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Mar ’16 YOY growth rate of 5.8% was the second largest experienced in the past 18 months, trailing only the Feb ’16 growth rate. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+178,500 MT), followed by Germany (+138,020 MT) and Ireland (+133,620 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and over half of the YOY production gains during Mar ’16. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Ireland (+28.6%), followed by Cyprus (+28.2%), Belgium (+22.6%), Luxembourg (+21.7%) and Bulgaria (+20.2%).
All ten of the top milk producing Member States with the exception of France and the United Kingdom experienced YOY gains in milk production during Mar ’16, increasing by a weighted average of 6.8% YOY. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month.
Feb ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased 8.2% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing 4.2% higher YOY when assuming flat YOY growth throughout Austria. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by France, followed by Poland, Italy and Spain.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. The Feb ’16 YOY increase in slaughter rates of 4.2% YOY was the third largest YOY growth rate experienced since quota expiration. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over seven of the nine months through February. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower heading into 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first 11 months of the ’15-’16 production season.