U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Oct ’19 month-end dry whey stocks declined 5.6% MOM but remained 5.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 4.6 million pounds, or 5.6%, was smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.1 million pounds, or 2.4%. The larger than typical seasonal decline in dry whey stocks occurred despite production finishing 7.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’19, increasing for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 15.1% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a 35 Month Low Level, Finish Down 13.0% YOY
Oct ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 12.4% MOM to a 35 month low while finishing 13.0% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 31.1 million pounds, or 12.4%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 11.9 million pounds, or 8.1%. The larger than typical seasonal decline in NFDM stocks occurred despite production finishing 11.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’19, increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 8.9% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.9% YOY
Oct ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 2.9%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.2% above three year average seasonal figures.
- Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks increased 5.0% on a YOY basis, finishing at the second highest seasonal level on record.
- Oct ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined to a 35 month low level, finishing 13.0% lower on a YOY basis.
Oct ’19 month-end dry whey stocks declined 5.6% MOM but remained 5.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 4.6 million pounds, or 5.6%, was smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.1 million pounds, or 2.4%. The larger than typical seasonal decline in dry whey stocks occurred despite production finishing 7.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’19, increasing for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 15.1% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a 35 Month Low Level, Finish Down 13.0% YOY
Oct ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 12.4% MOM to a 35 month low while finishing 13.0% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 31.1 million pounds, or 12.4%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 11.9 million pounds, or 8.1%. The larger than typical seasonal decline in NFDM stocks occurred despite production finishing 11.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’19, increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 8.9% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.9% YOY
Oct ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 2.9%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.2% above three year average seasonal figures.