U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three month, finishing up 3.9% to a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 3.6% higher YOY.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Increases 3.7% YOY, Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 3.7% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the third experienced in a row. Domestic butter demand increased 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.2% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Oct ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases 0.5% YOY, Reaches a Record High Monthly Level
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months. American cheese disappearance increased 5.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.8% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand increased 0.2% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 5.5% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 19 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases to a 12 Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 19.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 19.4% YOY, reaching a 12 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis. Domestic dry whey demand increased 68.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 39.5% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level.
Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the six month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Ninth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.3%
Oct ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 2.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 17.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 13.0% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Oct ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a 17 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases 17.0% YOY, Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 17.0% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis. NFDM/SMP domestic demand increased 18.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 16.6% YOY.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Oct ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 35 month low level. The MOM decline in NFDM/SMP stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.
On an absolute basis, Oct ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for WPC. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.
- Oct ’19 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 2.5% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 3.9% YOY on a skim-solids basis, each reaching record high seasonal levels. Domestic demand increased 3.7% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 4.0% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- Oct ’19 U.S. butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance each increased to record high seasonal levels while dry whey disappearance finished at a 12 year high seasonal level. Oct ’19 whey protein concentrate remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, however.
- Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three month, finishing up 3.9% to a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 3.6% higher YOY.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Increases 3.7% YOY, Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 3.7% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the third experienced in a row. Domestic butter demand increased 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.2% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Oct ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases 0.5% YOY, Reaches a Record High Monthly Level
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months. American cheese disappearance increased 5.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.8% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand increased 0.2% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 5.5% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 19 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases to a 12 Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 19.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 19.4% YOY, reaching a 12 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis. Domestic dry whey demand increased 68.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 39.5% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level.
Oct ’19 U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the six month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Ninth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.3%
Oct ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 2.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 17.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 13.0% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Oct ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a 17 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases 17.0% YOY, Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 17.0% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis. NFDM/SMP domestic demand increased 18.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 16.6% YOY.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Oct ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 35 month low level. The MOM decline in NFDM/SMP stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.
On an absolute basis, Oct ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for WPC. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.