U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Dec ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Jan ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 7.40 million steers and steer calves, up 0.4% from 2020 levels, and 4.57 million heifers and heifer calves, down 0.4% from the previous year.
Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months throughout Dec ‘20, increasing by 0.8% and reaching a 15 year high seasonal level. The YOY change in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a 3.0% decline. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (+5.5%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+2.9%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-4.4%) and 600 pounds or less (-1.1%) declined throughout the month.
Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have declined by an additional 7.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 2.7% on a YOY basis during Dec ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the third experienced in a row. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 4.3% on a YOY basis during Dec ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season while ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have declined by an additional 6.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, reaching a ten year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was the first experienced throughout the past three months. The YOY increase in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 0.7% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data.
’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Jan 1st increased 0.1% YOY, finishing higher for the sixth consecutive month. The YOY change in the cattle on feed supply finished slightly above average analyst expectations.
- Placements in feedlots increased 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, reaching a 15 year high seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more reached a record high seasonal level throughout the month. The YOY change in placements finished above analyst expectations.
- Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, reaching a ten year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was largely consistent with analyst expectations.
The Jan ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 7.40 million steers and steer calves, up 0.4% from 2020 levels, and 4.57 million heifers and heifer calves, down 0.4% from the previous year.
Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months throughout Dec ‘20, increasing by 0.8% and reaching a 15 year high seasonal level. The YOY change in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a 3.0% decline. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (+5.5%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+2.9%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-4.4%) and 600 pounds or less (-1.1%) declined throughout the month.
Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have declined by an additional 7.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 2.7% on a YOY basis during Dec ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the third experienced in a row. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 4.3% on a YOY basis during Dec ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season while ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have declined by an additional 6.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20, reaching a ten year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was the first experienced throughout the past three months. The YOY increase in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 0.7% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data.
’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent increase.