Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jul ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 7.0% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months.
• U.S. pork production declined 11.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork production was the largest experienced throughout the past 25 years. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 11.0% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21 while average weights per head finished 0.7% lower YOY.
• Jul ’21 U.S. beef production declined to a four year low seasonal level, finishing 2.3% below previous year figures. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’21 while average weights per head finished 1.0% lower YOY.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 7.0% YOY

According to the USDA, Jul ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined to a 14 month low level, finishing 7.0% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Total red meat production reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of July. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months. The month-over-month decline in total red meat production of 6.1% was significantly larger than the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in production of 1.4%.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has increased by an additional 1.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 47^th consecutive month throughout Jul ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months, however.

Pork – Production Declines YOY by the Largest Percentage in the Past 25 Years, Down 11.8%

Jul ’21 U.S. pork production declined to a 14 month low level, finishing 11.8% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Pork production reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of July. The YOY decline in pork production was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 25 years on a percentage basis. The Jul ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 11.0% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.7% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, however.

Beef – Production Declines to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 2.3% YOY

Jul ’21 U.S. beef production declined from the previous month while finishing 2.3% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Beef production reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of July. The Jul ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.4% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 1.0% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, despite the most recent decline, and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.