Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Dec ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 3.5% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
• U.S. pork production declined 6.2% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the seventh consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21 while average weights per head finished 0.7% lower.
• U.S. beef production declined 0.6% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the sixth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, more than offsetting a 0.2% increase in average weights per head.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 3.5% YOY

According to the USDA, Dec ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined to a three month low level while finishing 3.5% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the seventh experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in total red meat production of 2.5% was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline of 3.6%.

’20-’21 annual red meat production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fifth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD red meat production has declined by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, however.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 52^nd consecutive month throughout Dec ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past 34 months, however.

Pork – Production Reaches a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 6.2% YOY

Dec ’21 U.S. pork production declined to a three month low level while finishing 6.2% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork production was the seventh experienced in a row. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 5.6% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.7% below previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual pork production finished 1.5% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD pork production has declined by an additional 6.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.

Beef – Production Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 0.6% YOY

Dec ’21 U.S. beef production declined to a three month low level while finishing 0.6% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in beef production was the sixth experienced in a row. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.7% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.2% increase in average weights per head.

’20-’21 annual beef production finished 2.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’21-’22 YTD beef production has declined by 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, however.