Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 16^th time in the past 17 months throughout Jan ’22, finishing 16.3% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low level, overall.
• Jan ’22 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased seasonally to a four month high level but remained 14.3% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Decline to a Five Year Low Level, Finish 16.3% Lower YOY

According to the USDA, Jan ’22 month-end dry whey stocks declined contraseasonally to a five year low level, finishing 16.3% below previous year levels. Dry whey stocks remained at a ten year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. Dry whey stocks have finished below previous year levels over 16 of 17 months through Jan ’22.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 0.7 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 2.3%. Dry whey production declined 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

On a days of usage basis, Jan ’22 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 15.9% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the 12^th consecutive month.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 14.3% YOY

Jan ’22 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a four month high level but remained 14.3% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis.

The month-over-month increase in NFDM stocks of 9.0 million pounds, or 3.6%, was largely consistent with the ten year average December – January seasonal build in stocks of 8.9 million pounds, or 4.3%. NFDM production declined 13.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, finishing below previous year levels for the sixth time in the past seven months.

On a days of usage basis, Jan ’22 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 13.4% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months and reaching a five year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 6.1% below previous year levels throughout Jan ’22, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years. A 24.2% YOY decline in Class IV milk product (butter and nonfat dry milk) stock volumes more than offset a 1.8% YOY increase in Class III milk product (cheese & dry whey) stock volumes throughout the month.