Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 0.6% below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22, reaching an 18 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 22^nd experienced throughout the past 23 months but the smallest experienced throughout the past five months.
• U.S. beef stocks finished 3.9% above previous year levels throughout Feb ’22, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 13 months.
• U.S. chicken stocks finished 1.7% above previous year levels, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 19 months.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Reach an 18 Year Low Seasonal Level but Finish Just 0.6% Below the Previous Year

According to the USDA, Feb ’22 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased seasonally to a 12 month high level but remained 0.6% below previous year levels, reaching an 18 year low seasonal level for the month of February. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 22^nd experienced throughout the past 23 months but the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 45.9 million pound, or 10.6%, was larger than the ten year average January – February seasonal build in stocks of 36.9 million pounds, or 6.5%.

Beef – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 3.9% Higher YOY

Feb ’22 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased contraseasonally to a 14 month high level, finishing 3.9% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of February. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 13 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 19.3 million pounds, or 3.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in stocks of 9.9 million pounds, or 1.7%.

Chicken – Stocks Finish Above Previous Year Levels for the First Time in 19 Months, up 1.7%

Feb ’22 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased contraseasonally to a 13 month high level, finishing 1.7% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in chicken stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 19 months. The month-over-month increase in chicken stocks of 11.2 million pounds, or 1.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in stocks of 8.5 million pounds, or 1.1%. Chicken stocks have increased contraseasonally throughout each of the past two months through Feb ’22.

Overall, Feb ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 13.3% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Feb ’20. Individually, Feb ’22 beef and chicken stocks finished 6.2% and 20.1% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 31.5% below the maximum historical storage level.

Feb ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 13.2% below the record high seasonal storage level experienced throughout 2020. Individually, Feb ’22 beef stocks reached a record high seasonal storage level however chicken and pork stocks finished 15.4% and 30.0% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels.

Feb ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded seasonally to a 14 month high level, finishing 1.7% above previous year levels. The Feb ’22 YOY increase in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 22 months.