U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mar ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 15.4% MOM while also finishing 3.5% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a 13 month low overall. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past ten months. Dry whey stocks remained 1.2% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 13.6 million pounds, or 15.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 2.2 million pounds, or 3.6%. Dry whey production declined 11.3% MOM on a daily average basis throughout Mar ’18, contributing to the decline in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 14.5% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Record Seasonal High, Finish up 20.9% YOY
Mar ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 0.1% MOM from the Feb ’18 revised figure but remained 20.9% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. Feb ’18 NFDM stocks were revised 7.9% below the initially stated figure. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months through March. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 0.4 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 3.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 37.5% YOY.
- Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks declined 3.5% YOY, finishing at a 13 month low. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past ten months.
- Mar ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month, finishing up 20.9% to a new record seasonal high for the month of March.
Mar ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 15.4% MOM while also finishing 3.5% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a 13 month low overall. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past ten months. Dry whey stocks remained 1.2% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 13.6 million pounds, or 15.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 2.2 million pounds, or 3.6%. Dry whey production declined 11.3% MOM on a daily average basis throughout Mar ’18, contributing to the decline in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 14.5% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Record Seasonal High, Finish up 20.9% YOY
Mar ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 0.1% MOM from the Feb ’18 revised figure but remained 20.9% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. Feb ’18 NFDM stocks were revised 7.9% below the initially stated figure. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months through March. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 0.4 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 3.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 37.5% YOY.