Corn – ’18-’19 U.S. & Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 1.552 billion bushels significantly below expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 151.96 million MT below expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. corn supply was projected higher as greater production stemming from an increase in both planted and harvested acres more than offset lower beginning stocks. The increase in the projected corn supply was more than offset by higher usage projections, however. Higher projected feed and residual usage, coupled with higher projected export volumes, more than offset reduced food, seed and residual usage projections. ’18-’19 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.552 billion bushels, or 38.4 days of use, finished 1.6% below the previous month projection and 9.3% below expectations. The ’18-’19 global corn ending stock projection finished 1.8% below the previous month projection and 2.8% below expectations. Global corn ending stock projections were driven lower by higher expected usage throughout China.

Soybeans – ’18-‘19 U.S. & Global Ending Stocks Significantly Above Private Estimates

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 580 million bushels significantly above expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 98.27 million MT significantly above expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. soybean supply was projected slightly lower as a reduction in beginning stocks more than offset greater production stemming from an increase in both planted and harvested acres. Soybean usage projections were projected significantly lower as reduced projected export volumes more than offset higher food, seed and residual usage, resulting in an increase in ending stock projections. Soybean export volumes were projected significantly lower on China’s recently imposed import duties. ’18-’19 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 580 million bushels, or 50.2 days of use, finished 50.6% above the previous month projection and 23.1% above expectations. The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 12.9% above the previous month projection and 11.5% above expectations. Global soybean ending stock projections were driven higher by an expected reduction in Chinese imports.

Wheat – ’18-’19 U.S. Ending Stocks Slightly Above Private Estimates, Global Stocks Finish Lower

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 985 million bushels slightly above expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 260.88 million MT slightly below expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. wheat supply was projected higher on greater production stemming from an increase in both planted and harvested acres, coupled with higher beginning stocks. The increase in the projected wheat supply more than offset increased projected usage, which was revised higher on greater projected exports and feed and residual usage. ’18-’19 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 985 million bushels, or 168.6 days of use, finished 4.1% above the previous month projection and 1.2% above expectations. The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 2.0% below the previous month projection and 1.6% below expectations, however. Global wheat ending stock projections were driven lower by an expected reduction in production experienced throughout the EU-28.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’18-’19 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations while wheat stocks finishing slightly above expectations and corn stocks finished significantly lower. ’18-’19 projected global soybean stocks also finished most significantly above expectations while global corn and wheat ending stocks each finished below private estimates.