U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jul ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Jun ’18 U.S. butter stocks declined 0.6% MOM from the 24 year high experienced during the previous month but remained 8.5% higher YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a 25 year seasonal high for the month of June, finishing 12.8% above three year average seasonal figures.
The MOM seasonal decline in butter stocks of 2.1 million pounds, or 0.6%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 3.7 million pounds, or 1.2%. U.S. butter stocks typically increase seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year, prior to declining to seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’18 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.8%.
Cheese – Stocks Increase to a New Monthly Record High Level, Finish up 5.8% YOY
Jun ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 0.5% MOM and 5.8% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 44th consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high level. Other-than-American cheese stocks increased 16.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in American cheese stocks. Total cheese stocks finished 12.6% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of June.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 7.0 million pounds, or 0.5%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal build of 10.6 million pounds, or 1.0%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 5.8%.
- Jun ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing 8.5% above the previous year. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of June.
- Jun ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 5.8% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high level. Other-than-American cheese stocks increased 16.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in American cheese stocks. Total cheese stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 44 consecutive months through June.
According to USDA, Jun ’18 U.S. butter stocks declined 0.6% MOM from the 24 year high experienced during the previous month but remained 8.5% higher YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a 25 year seasonal high for the month of June, finishing 12.8% above three year average seasonal figures.
The MOM seasonal decline in butter stocks of 2.1 million pounds, or 0.6%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 3.7 million pounds, or 1.2%. U.S. butter stocks typically increase seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year, prior to declining to seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’18 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.8%.
Cheese – Stocks Increase to a New Monthly Record High Level, Finish up 5.8% YOY
Jun ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 0.5% MOM and 5.8% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 44th consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high level. Other-than-American cheese stocks increased 16.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in American cheese stocks. Total cheese stocks finished 12.6% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of June.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 7.0 million pounds, or 0.5%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal build of 10.6 million pounds, or 1.0%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 5.8%.