June ’12 USDA Planted Acreage Report
- Corn – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 96.4 million acres planted was a little above the 96.0 million acres average estimate and well above the 91.9 million planted last year.
- The focus remains on the weather and yield. The dry conditions will likely reduce the level of harvested acres relative to planted so we left harvested acreage virtually unchanged despite higher planted figures. Yield is expected to take a hit in the next report.
- Feed and residual usage is expected to be lower as forward profitability for livestock is at extremely poor levels indicating rationing would certainly occur.
- The projected ending stocks are still adequate at over 1 billion bushels but not nearly as comfortable as the projected 1.8 billion last month.
- Soybeans – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 76.1 million acres planted was above the 75.6 million acres average estimate and 75.0 million planted last year.
- Again weather is the primary focus with beans more sensitive to late July precipitation and temperatures. It is expected that the record double cropping acreage will take a significant hit from limited rainfall in the areas most suitable for double cropping. Therefore, the harvested acreage for beans is projected at very low levels relative to planted acreage. Yield is left only slightly lower as the bulk of lower production comes from less harvesting of double cropped land and the fact that yields are most greatly impacted in late July.
- In either case, the balance sheet for 12/13 remains extremely tight and is prone to significant price swings as yield expectations evolve.
- Wheat – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 56.0 million acres planted was below the 56.9 million acres average estimate but above the 54.4 million planted last year.
- Yield expectations have taken a small hit from last month as winter wheat harvest is in its final stages and have been slightly disappointing. However, the spring crop conditions have improved as key states have benefited from rain fall that much of the corn-belt has missed. The ending stocks are more than adequate at 758 million bushels.