Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Nov ’14
Pork – Net Trade Continues to Trade Downward
Sep ’14 U.S. pork export volumes increased 0.8% MOM on a daily average basis but declined 13.2% YOY. The monthly YOY decline was the third in a row after seven consecutive months of YOY export volume increases. The 13.2% decline the largest YOY monthly percentage decline in 18 months. Growth for U.S. pork exports destined to Mexico remained strong through Sep ’14, however U.S. pork exports to China and Japan declined significantly YOY. ’13-’14 YTD pork export volumes finished 0.5% higher than the previous year.
Sep ’14 U.S. pork imports increased 22.8% YOY and 17.5% MOM on a daily average basis to a new ten year high. ’13-’14 YTD pork import volumes finished 10.5% higher than the previous year. The increase in pork imports, coupled with the YOY decline in exports, resulted in the lowest monthly U.S. pork net trade figure in four years. Sep ’14 net pork trade was down 21.8% YOY and 4.3% MOM on a daily average basis.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 YTD pork imports have experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 YTD pork exports volumes remain over five times as large as import volumes.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes the Year Negative for First Time in Four Years
Sep ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 1.2% MOM on a daily average basis but increased 3.8% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes to Japan and Mexico were particularly strong on a YOY basis, increasing 30.2% and 19.6%, respectively. ’13-’14 YTD beef & veal export volumes finished 3.2% higher than the previous year, with export volumes to Mexico and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan up 29.5% and 25.0% YOY, respectively while export volumes to Canada declined 24.4% YOY.
Sep ’14 U.S. beef & veal imports remained significantly higher, increasing 7.7% MOM on a daily average basis and 65.0% YOY, the largest YOY percentage increase in over ten years. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the seventh consecutive month in Sep ’14, with import volumes 16.1% greater than export volumes. ’13-’14 YTD beef & veal import volumes finished 20.8% higher than the previous year.
Recent strength in beef & veal imports has resulted in ’13-’14 YTD U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than YTD U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. ’13-’14 YTD export volumes were 22.3% greater than import volumes through the first five months of the production season, prior to the recent pullback in exports and increase in imports. Although U.S. beef & veal imports have historically exceeded U.S. beef & veal exports, imports have exceeded exports over the past three years leading up to the ’13-’14 production season.
Chicken – Broiler Exports Finish Year up 0.5%, Imports Down 1.6%
Sep ’14 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 3.5% MOM on a daily average basis and 1.5% YOY. U.S. broiler export volumes to Mexico were particularly strong on a YOY basis, increasing 22.4% YOY. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. ’13-’14 YTD broiler export volumes finished 0.5% higher than the previous year.
Sep ’14 U.S. broiler imports declined 8.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 13.2% YOY. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Sep ’14 imports amounting to only 1.5% of export volumes. ’13-’14 YTD broiler import volumes finished 1.6% lower than the previous year.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 YTD broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 YTD pork imports have experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 YTD pork exports volumes remain over five times as large as import volumes.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes the Year Negative for First Time in Four Years
Sep ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 1.2% MOM on a daily average basis but increased 3.8% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes to Japan and Mexico were particularly strong on a YOY basis, increasing 30.2% and 19.6%, respectively. ’13-’14 YTD beef & veal export volumes finished 3.2% higher than the previous year, with export volumes to Mexico and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan up 29.5% and 25.0% YOY, respectively while export volumes to Canada declined 24.4% YOY.
Sep ’14 U.S. beef & veal imports remained significantly higher, increasing 7.7% MOM on a daily average basis and 65.0% YOY, the largest YOY percentage increase in over ten years. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the seventh consecutive month in Sep ’14, with import volumes 16.1% greater than export volumes. ’13-’14 YTD beef & veal import volumes finished 20.8% higher than the previous year.
Recent strength in beef & veal imports has resulted in ’13-’14 YTD U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than YTD U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. ’13-’14 YTD export volumes were 22.3% greater than import volumes through the first five months of the production season, prior to the recent pullback in exports and increase in imports. Although U.S. beef & veal imports have historically exceeded U.S. beef & veal exports, imports have exceeded exports over the past three years leading up to the ’13-’14 production season.
Chicken – Broiler Exports Finish Year up 0.5%, Imports Down 1.6%
Sep ’14 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 3.5% MOM on a daily average basis and 1.5% YOY. U.S. broiler export volumes to Mexico were particularly strong on a YOY basis, increasing 22.4% YOY. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. ’13-’14 YTD broiler export volumes finished 0.5% higher than the previous year.
Sep ’14 U.S. broiler imports declined 8.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 13.2% YOY. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Sep ’14 imports amounting to only 1.5% of export volumes. ’13-’14 YTD broiler import volumes finished 1.6% lower than the previous year.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 YTD broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes.